6 days-

This is after reading the new email controversy around Hillary Clinton. In which it appears that the Democratic Party officials colluded with her to deny Bernie Sanders party nomination. I rarely explain context, but this is a post I might be reading for years to come.

Can Trump lose this election? At this point, it seems unlikely, as unlikely as his winning seemed in the innocent pre-Brexit  world. Since then, we have watched the descent of the entire British political system (how old is British democracy? 400 years?) into farce. And now we are watching as the American political system (250 years) goes through worse. The Republican party stands destroyed and has someone who is basically a joke candidate as a nominee. The Democrats, being shrewder, managed to save their party, but would be paying for it in the general election, being poised to nominate a candidate who simply cannot win, as things stand. Trump is the Littlefinger candidate, climbing the ladder of chaos, and there is simply too much chaos to go around. Everytime a Muslim kills white people- a almost daily thing now- Trump benefits. Everytime there is a controversy about Hillary- Trump benefits. Everytime there is political chaos anywhere in the world- a monthly occurrence now?- Trump benefits. Everytime there is a controversy about Trump’s own campaign- he benefits. How can he lose? Really?

I am glad this is a personal journal and I can say what I want without getting called on it. It feels like we are now in the era of the Decline and Fall of the American/British Empire. It began with the collapse of the financial systems in 2008- and they haven’t recovered. Now they have dragged down robust , stable, centuries old democracies with them. Next, I can’t help but feel, would be the loss of hegemony of the American/British university system, as education becomes prohibitively expensive and knowledge becomes free.

And then what? Important question, what happens to India? It seems like the 10 year “policy paralysis” has protected us from the worst of last decade’s policies. Our banks are also shit, but they are nationalized, so should be simpler to recapitalize. Our politicians are evil, but simply not on the scale of Bush/Blair/Clinton. (Aside- Is this why they say sedition laws have no place in modern democracies? So that politicians can get away with the outright sedition which was revealed in #28pages?)

We are in terrible shape. Our education systems are shit, and our way of teaching basically destroys talent. The British and the Americans ruled the world from the strength of their schools and colleges, and that model of progress seems closed to us. The dictatorships do well enough, but we are too fond of our democracy to go that way. (I might be wrong, but that’s what I feel). Climate change is really going to screw us over. So I suppose I do not know.


Almost a month

What a week!

It feels like we are approaching some sort of an endgame, as if the first act is over and now we are in the second act, setting the scene for the final act.

Reading my twitter timeline reminds me of the time I first read Sherlock Holmes, when I was 11 and had the vaguest notions about the First World War. All the political maneuverings in the stories felt vaguely significant, but those books were ignorant of the future, and so was I. Now re-reading them knowing what happened 20 years later, they present a picture of a world on the brink of a devastating war, the last days of a way of life. In the 90s and the subsequent decade, when I read Sherlock Holmes and then Agatha Christie, world news was simply not important. We did not think of what was happening in Europe. News was local, terrorism was local, economics was personal, and money was doing well. Now, everything is global, and world finance is lurching from one day to the other, being held up by band-aids. The borderline insane Zerohedge is the only news source which makes some sense, which has a coherent explanation of things. I am not a conspiracy theory type person, but what can one even think when conspiracy theories come up with testable predictions which come true?

Again, for all the words I have devoted to Antifragile here, I do not like NN Taleb’s twitter at all. Yet, again and again, his predictions come true. He kept saying Trump will win, and Trumps win seems certain with every passing day. He kept saying that countries are stable where all risks are out in the open and there is continuous bickering over local issues. Isn’t that why Indian politicians have not done what amounts to sedition- it might be a “outdated” concept in the modern world, but that is exactly what Bush and Blair’s crime is called.

I never talked about it, but the History of the Third Reich by Richard Evans is one of my favorite books. Among other things, it shows how reality has a left bias, and how far-right beliefs destroyed a country and a world. What bothers me is that events are now showing the opposite. Rightwing xenophobia is now the most sensible way of looking at the world.

And that is horrifying.