What a week!
It feels like we are approaching some sort of an endgame, as if the first act is over and now we are in the second act, setting the scene for the final act.
Reading my twitter timeline reminds me of the time I first read Sherlock Holmes, when I was 11 and had the vaguest notions about the First World War. All the political maneuverings in the stories felt vaguely significant, but those books were ignorant of the future, and so was I. Now re-reading them knowing what happened 20 years later, they present a picture of a world on the brink of a devastating war, the last days of a way of life. In the 90s and the subsequent decade, when I read Sherlock Holmes and then Agatha Christie, world news was simply not important. We did not think of what was happening in Europe. News was local, terrorism was local, economics was personal, and money was doing well. Now, everything is global, and world finance is lurching from one day to the other, being held up by band-aids. The borderline insane Zerohedge is the only news source which makes some sense, which has a coherent explanation of things. I am not a conspiracy theory type person, but what can one even think when conspiracy theories come up with testable predictions which come true?
Again, for all the words I have devoted to Antifragile here, I do not like NN Taleb’s twitter at all. Yet, again and again, his predictions come true. He kept saying Trump will win, and Trumps win seems certain with every passing day. He kept saying that countries are stable where all risks are out in the open and there is continuous bickering over local issues. Isn’t that why Indian politicians have not done what amounts to sedition- it might be a “outdated” concept in the modern world, but that is exactly what Bush and Blair’s crime is called.
I never talked about it, but the History of the Third Reich by Richard Evans is one of my favorite books. Among other things, it shows how reality has a left bias, and how far-right beliefs destroyed a country and a world. What bothers me is that events are now showing the opposite. Rightwing xenophobia is now the most sensible way of looking at the world.
And that is horrifying.