3 weeks since the last post.
The last post, if you remember, was about how I was alarmed by the world. The last 3 weeks I have spent reading and thinking over this, and now I am no longer that alarmed. I had a friend once, who used to say, I hope the exam is tough. Only in tough exams, the good have a real opportunity to outdo the average. And as the exams seems to be turning tougher, I am now glad for the opportunity to prove myself as good, or at east, better than average.
Maybe I too would flunk this. There is always that chance with tough exams. But thats what is fun about them.
So, lets review the preparations. I have gone back to Taleb’s advice on living in a unknown risk world, modified to my own risk appetite. The career is of course the safe part of the barbel strategy, of only doing high risk and very low risk. Current interest rates are about 7-8%, and inflation should be similar (though food inflation must be higher, and eating out of home is now practically unaffordable), so I have some money in recurring deposits which I will convert to fixed at the end of term. The high risk things are the stocks/mutual funds. I invested in the first stock whose name I liked, and have been following both that and my indexed mutual funds. I think conclusion is to stay with the funds. I suspect, but have no way of bein sure, that the large caps are more ridiculously valued than the small caps, but then, the small caps have really been beating the market this year, so I could be wrong.
Of course, like markets the world over, our stock markets do not make any sense. Indian economy is in a terrible shape, companies have terrible internal practices (Google might be overvalued too, but at least they do not actively encourage mediocrity), and education practices are a insult to the word. The education systems- schools, colleges and coachings- are currently so terrible that it makes no sense to invest in India’s future. Many smart people realize this and leave.
But increasingly, the question is, where to go? How long can the Gulf states keep out the chaos all around them? Does anyone understand whats happening with oil? Why are the prices so low? What is this Saudi Arabia is doing this to preserve market share? It is a non-renewable resource, there will always be market share! Unless electric cars destroy the petrol market- which is what we all hope for, but who knows? Anyways, so the Gulf is out. Europe is already facing a migrant crisis, and a financial crisis and can no longer pretend to be a promised land. US? God knows. Why are they trying to restart the Cold War? I read somewhere that Russia can now launch warheads from suborbital heights. Once people are willing to drop bombs from the space, we need to stop taking about Hiroshima and start talking about the asteroid that wiped off the dinosaurs!
You might say, India has a nuclear powered enemy too. India is unsafe too. I do not know. I doubt that sub-continent made bombs can really work, and I would take my chances against radiation (which is reasonably effectively blocked by concrete) than rocks hurled from space! Plus, I love India. I would rather die on the land that I love than face a pointless death on unfamiliar land.
Also, what is it with the US economy? If it was okay, this election would simply not be this much of a farce. Also, and I call myself a conspiracy nut for this too, so forgive me, but do you remember the May 2014 Indian elections? Featuring an priviledged idiot who no one took seriously, a economically left politically far right candidate (which is similar to what the Americans will call a neocon/neoliberal), and a leftwing darling with socialist policies who fought a personal battle against the neocon/neoliberal, and lost, but did not fight the main election. Do you remember the ever-rising stock market and the sad/terrible economic data? Do you remember the vague threats of impending war? Do you remember the omnipresent comparisons to Hitler?
WHY ARE AMERICAN ELECTIONS FOLLOWING THE SAME SCRIPT? There is nothing, nothing, nothing in common between US and Indian politics, except that they are- entirely different forms of- democracies.
It is this particular glitch in the matrix is bothering me. A lot. I do not know what to say to this.